Lincoln County, MO Environment & Hazard Risk
Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by heat wave. 462 storm events since 1996.
- Expected yearly loss
- $31.68M
- Relatively Low nationally
- Storm events since 1996
- 462
- Most often thunderstorm wind
- Flood insurance policies
- 167
- 0.6% of homes
- Hurricanes nearby
- 0
- Since 1851
Natural hazard risk
FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025
Overall risk
Relatively Low
Score 67.1 of 100
Social vulnerability
Very Low
Score 17.6 of 100
Community resilience
Relatively High
Score 70.5 of 100
Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.
Building value exposed: $11.81B · Agriculture value exposed: $111M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $27.27M
Risk by hazard
- Heat waveRelatively Moderate$4.81M/yr expected annual loss, about 12 events a year
- LandslideRelatively Low$27.12K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
- Strong windRelatively Moderate$1.58M/yr expected annual loss, about 5.8 events a year
- EarthquakeRelatively Low$1.65M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 282 years
- HailRelatively Moderate$937K/yr expected annual loss, about 5.2 events a year
- TornadoRelatively Moderate$3.38M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
- Cold waveRelatively Moderate$2.57M/yr expected annual loss, about 2.3 events a year
- LightningRelatively Moderate$434K/yr expected annual loss, about 50 events a year
- WildfireVery Low$95.92K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 1,646 years
- Winter weatherRelatively Low$95.64K/yr expected annual loss, about 9.4 events a year
- DroughtRelatively Low$108K/yr expected annual loss, about 3.3 events a year
- Ice stormRelatively Low$40.31K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.1 events a year
- HurricaneVery Low$3,561/yr expected annual loss, about once every 118 years
Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: avalanche, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.
Flood risk and insurance
National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps
Check the flood zone for an address
- Homes with flood insurance
- 167 of 27,653 (0.6%)
- Homes in high-risk flood zones
- 1,309
- Insured in high-risk zones
- 150 (11%)
- Flood claims since 1978
- 2,253
- Claims paid since 1978
- $37.1M
Flood claims paid per year
- Midwest Flooding$10.34M · 383 claims
- Flooding$1.53M · 213 claims
- Hurricane Ike$1.52M · 56 claims
- Not a named storm$868K · 126 claims
- Early winter storms$226K · 36 claims
- Late spring severe storms$158K · 14 claims
Storm history
Since 1996: 462 events, 2 deaths, $18.22M in damage
- Thunderstorm Wind140
- Hail109
- Flash Flood38
- Winter Storm37
- Heat31 · 2 deaths
- Excessive Heat26
- Flood18
- Tornado15
- Drought12
- Heavy Snow11
Events per year
24 tornadoes on record (EF0 6, EF1 3, F0 4, F1 8, F2 1, F3 2).
Most damaging storms
Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage
- Heat07/24/2017
Lincoln
1 death, 1 injured
What happened
A 76 year old man died in his home from heat exhaustion. The power had been out for a couple of days due to thunderstorm damage.
- Heat07/20/2005
Lincoln
1 death
What happened
The first significant heat wave in several years struck all of central, eastern, northeast, and southeast Missouri. Columbia recorded 6 straight days of 100 plus temperatures with the highest being 105 degrees on the 23rd and 24th. St. Louis had 3 straight days of 100 degree temperatures with the highest being 103 degrees on the 24th. Heat Indices ranged from 105 to around 120. As of this publicatiion, 4 deaths were officially attributed by medical examiners as being caused by the heat. Three occurred in the City of St. Louis and the other in Lincoln County.
- TornadoF3, 24 mi path, 300 yd wide03/13/2006
Olney, Lincoln County
6 injured, $2.5M damage
What happened
The tornado that formed in Montgomery County north of Bellflower moved into Lincoln County, strengthened, and caused extensive damage along Highway E on the north side of Olney. A home was completely destroyed as the tornado reached F3 intensity and was about 300 yards wide. The family at home escaped injury as they had taken shelter in the basement. About 1:35 am CST, the tornado destroyed a home and caused damage to a home business along Highway H northwest of Silex. At this point the tornado was a strong F2 and about 200 yards wide. A man in the home that was destroyed suffered a broken leg. At the home business, the home suffered roof damage and had the north side brick wall pulled off of the house. A large machine shed suffered extensive damage and a 50 foot travel trailer and the pickup truck it was attached too were blown onto their sides. The tornado continued northeast and primarily crossed over wildlife and conservation areas south of Whiteside. The tornado crossed US Highway 61 near the intersection with Highway F about 1:40 am CST and caused minor damage at a farm and a couple of homes. An old barn was destroyed, a metal shed was destroyed, a garage had the door...
- Heat08/28/2000
Lincoln
7 injured
What happened
A late summer Heat Wave hit the region as temperatures rose into the middle to upper 90s with the heat Index ranging from 105 to around 110 degrees. Many area schools either closed or reduced class time to a half day because of the heat.
- Flash Flood06/03/2019
Winfield, Lincoln County
$5.4M damage
What happened
The Winfield Pin Oaks Levee system was breached during the afternoon hours on Sunday, June 2nd. The breach was at least 100 feet wide. The water rose quickly and reached the houses in the area beginning around 6 pm. An estimated 150 homes were affected by the levee breach and 250 people evacuated the area. No deaths or injuries occurred due to this levee breach.
- Flash Flood07/21/2025
Apex, Lincoln County
$5M damage
What happened
Heavy rain resulted in 42 water rescues in Lincoln County. The only official report of a road closure was MO-79 at Brownsmill Road where swift moving floodwater was reported. In Elsberry, 50 homes and 20 to 30 businesses were affected by the flooding, and a state of emergency was declared.
Latest storm reports
Newest first
- Excessive Heat07/27/2026
Lincoln
- Hail1.75" hail05/04/2026
Hines, Lincoln County
- Hail1.75" hail05/04/2026
Troy, Lincoln County
- Hail1" hail05/04/2026
South Troy, Lincoln County
- Hail1.75" hail05/04/2026
Hawk PT, Lincoln County
- Hail1.5" hail04/27/2026
Silex, Lincoln County
- Hail1" hail04/27/2026
Winfield, Lincoln County
- Thunderstorm Wind50 kt wind04/27/2026
Argentville, Lincoln County
Drinking water
32 community water systems serve about 44,707 people. Violations since 2021.
8 systems had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 5 systems had a violation of any kind still open at last report.
- Troy PwsServes 15,000 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations
- Lincoln County Pwsd 1Serves 14,000 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
- Moscow Mills PwsServes 4,500 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+4 monitoring or reporting
- Elsberry PwsServes 2,076 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+4 monitoring or reporting
- Winfield PwsServes 1,489 · Purchased groundwater · Local government1 health violation+6 monitoring or reporting
- Mo American Warren County Water & SewerServes 1,200 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations
- Lincoln County Pwsd 2Serves 1,005 · Purchased groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations
- Hawk Point PwsServes 945 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.
Climate
1991-2020 normals at Elsberry 1 S, 13 mi from the county center
Summer highs peak around 87°F in Jul and winter lows bottom out near 20°F in Jan. About 41.3 inches of rain falls in a typical year, with 16.3 inches of snow.
| Month | High | Low | Rain | Snow |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 38°F | 20°F | 2.35 in | 5.1 in |
| Feb | 43°F | 23°F | 2.21 in | 4.5 in |
| Mar | 55°F | 33°F | 3.20 in | 2.4 in |
| Apr | 67°F | 43°F | 4.40 in | 0.2 in |
| May | 75°F | 53°F | 5.00 in | - |
| Jun | 83°F | 62°F | 4.17 in | - |
| Jul | 87°F | 66°F | 4.24 in | - |
| Aug | 85°F | 64°F | 3.16 in | - |
| Sep | 79°F | 56°F | 3.49 in | - |
| Oct | 67°F | 44°F | 3.28 in | - |
| Nov | 54°F | 33°F | 3.28 in | 0.7 in |
| Dec | 41°F | 24°F | 2.47 in | 3.4 in |
| Year | 54°F average | 41.3 in | 16.3 in | |
Pollution sites
1 Superfund site and 2 toxic release facilities in Lincoln County
Superfund sites
- Shenandoah StablesDeletedMoscow Mills
Toxic release facilities
- Most Inc11,409 lbs released, Troy
- Toyota Motor Manufacturing Missouri Inc.106 lbs released, Troy
Total: 11,515 lbs in 2024, 219 lbs to air.
Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk1 historic places
Frequently asked questions
- How risky is Lincoln County for natural disasters?
- FEMA rates Lincoln County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $31.68M a year. The highest-rated hazards are heat wave (relatively moderate), landslide (relatively low), strong wind (relatively moderate).
- What storms are most common in Lincoln County?
- Since 1996, NOAA recorded 462 storm events affecting Lincoln County, most often thunderstorm wind (140), hail (109), flash flood (38).
- How many tornadoes have hit Lincoln County?
- 24 tornadoes have been recorded in Lincoln County since 1950, including 2 rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
- How many homes in Lincoln County have flood insurance?
- 167 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Lincoln County, covering about 0.6% of homes. The program has paid $37.1M on 2,253 claims here since 1978.
- What is the weather like in Lincoln County?
- At Elsberry 1 S, average highs reach 87°F in Jul and lows fall to 20°F in Jan, with 41.3 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).
Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.