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Risk: Relatively Low

Warren County, MO Environment & Hazard Risk

Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by heat wave. 363 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$27.3M
Relatively Low nationally
Storm events since 1996
363
Most often thunderstorm wind
Flood insurance policies
42
0.2% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
0
Since 1851

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Relatively Low

Score 55.3 of 100

Social vulnerability

Very Low

Score 10.6 of 100

Community resilience

Relatively High

Score 70.9 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $12.7B · Agriculture value exposed: $59.9M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $19.2M

Risk by hazard

  • Heat waveRelatively Moderate$5.9M/yr expected annual loss, about 12 events a year
  • LandslideRelatively Low$13K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
  • HailRelatively Moderate$977K/yr expected annual loss, about 5.4 events a year
  • EarthquakeRelatively Low$1.5M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 302 years
  • Ice stormRelatively Moderate$216K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.3 events a year
  • WildfireVery Low$102K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 1,651 years
  • TornadoRelatively Low$2.2M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 4 years
  • Strong windRelatively Moderate$938K/yr expected annual loss, about 5.6 events a year
  • Cold waveRelatively Low$1.2M/yr expected annual loss, about 1.9 events a year
  • Winter weatherRelatively Low$57.7K/yr expected annual loss, about 9.1 events a year
  • DroughtRelatively Low$41.6K/yr expected annual loss, about 2.4 events a year
  • LightningRelatively Low$167K/yr expected annual loss, about 50 events a year
  • HurricaneVery Low$2,536/yr expected annual loss, about once every 146 years

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: avalanche, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
42 of 18,152 (0.2%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
225
Insured in high-risk zones
27 (12%)
Flood claims since 1978
102
Claims paid since 1978
$2.3M

Flood claims paid per year

Flood claims paid per year in Warren County
Beta
  • Midwest Flooding$760K · 41 claims
  • Flooding$247K · 34 claims
  • Late spring severe storms$124K · 3 claims
  • Early winter storms$0 · 1 claim

Storm history

Since 1996: 363 events, 1 death, $203K in damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind95
  • Hail93
  • Winter Storm35
  • Heat28
  • Excessive Heat27 · 1 death
  • Flash Flood23
  • Flood10
  • Tornado10
  • Heavy Snow9
  • Drought7
Beta

Events per year

Storm events per year in Warren County
9
10
5
15
36
24
9
13
10
10
5
4
6
6
8
5
12
10
8
9
Beta

15 tornadoes on record (EF0 3, EF1 4, F0 3, F1 3, F2 2).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • Excessive Heat06/27/2012

    Warren

    43 injured

    What happened

    Some of the hottest temperatures in many years occurred the last 4 days of June and continued into July. St. Louis, MO recorded its highest ever June temperature hitting 108 degrees on June 28. Nearly all reporting stations were over 100 degrees the last 3 to 4 days of June with most sites around 105. The 28th was the hottest day. Some high temperatures across the Missouri counties on the 28th included 109 degrees at Spirit of St. Louis Airport in Chesterfield, 108 in Farmington and Fredericktown, 107 in Washington, Columbia, and Jefferson City, and 106 in Warrenton. The good thing was the air was very dry, thus the Heat Index was not much different than the air temperature. The City of St. Louis reported two heat related deaths on June 30. St. Louis County reported 20 heat related injuries on June 29, and 23 on June 30.

  • Excessive Heat07/16/2012

    Warren

    1 death

    What happened

    Excessive heat returned to the area as high temperatures ranged from 100 to 106. The Heat Index was a couple of degrees higher. St. Louis County reported one heat related death and 34 injuries. The City of St. Louis reported 19 heat related cases treated at local hospital emergency rooms.

  • Heat07/18/1999

    Warren

    2 injured

    What happened

    A heat wave gripped the area for the last 2 weeks of July. Temperatures stayed in the middle to upper 90s with a few days topping 100. Columbia set a record high with 104 degrees on 7/29/99. St. Louis tied a record with 103 degrees on 7/30/99. The Heat Index generally ranged from 105 to near 115. Most of the deaths and injuries occurred in the St. Louis Metropolitan Area.

  • Heat07/18/1998

    Warren

    2 injured

    What happened

    High temperatures in the middle to upper 90s along with Heat Index readings around 110 resulted in numerous heat related injuries across the region. Fortunately, there were no deaths attributed to the heat.

  • Thunderstorm Wind61 kt wind07/29/2023

    Case, Warren County

    1 injured

    What happened

    Thunderstorm winds blew a tree down onto a bridge that crosses Bear Creek, about 4 miles south southwest of High Hill. About 4 miles northeast of Jonesburg, a tree fell onto an occupied car causing moderate injuries to the occupant.

  • Heat07/26/2002

    Warren

    1 injured

    What happened

    High temperatures across Central, Eastern and Southeast Missouri rose to the middle to upper 90's with Heat Indices from 105 to near 115 degrees. There was a one day break in the heat as a weak cold front dropped high temperatures into the upper 80's on July29. However temperatures quickly rebounded and remained high into August. About 100 people had to be treated for heat related illnesses at the St. Louis Cardinals baseball game on July 27.

Drinking water

18 community water systems serve about 23,595 people. Violations since 2021.

3 systems had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 8 systems had a violation of any kind still open at last report.

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Pollution sites

0 Superfund sites and 3 toxic release facilities in Warren County

Superfund sites

None in this county.

Toxic release facilities

Total: 12,997 lbs in 2024, 12,993 lbs to air.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk7 historic places

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Warren County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Warren County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $27.3M a year. The highest-rated hazards are heat wave (relatively moderate), landslide (relatively low), hail (relatively moderate).
What storms are most common in Warren County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 363 storm events affecting Warren County, most often thunderstorm wind (95), hail (93), winter storm (35).
How many tornadoes have hit Warren County?
15 tornadoes have been recorded in Warren County since 1950.
How many homes in Warren County have flood insurance?
42 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Warren County, covering about 0.2% of homes. The program has paid $2.3M on 102 claims here since 1978.
What is the weather like in Warren County?
At Warrenton 1 N, average highs reach 88°F in Jul and lows fall to 20°F in Jan, with 41.5 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.

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