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Risk: Relatively Low

Carter County, MO Environment & Hazard Risk

Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by earthquake. 713 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$10.7M
Very Low nationally
Storm events since 1996
713
Most often hail
Flood insurance policies
37
1.2% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
0
Since 1851

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Relatively Low

Score 53.9 of 100

Social vulnerability

Very High

Score 93.9 of 100

Community resilience

Very Low

Score 9.7 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $1.8B · Agriculture value exposed: $4.9M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $18.6M

Risk by hazard

  • EarthquakeRelatively Low$1.3M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 128 years
  • Cold waveRelatively Moderate$2M/yr expected annual loss, about 1.1 events a year
  • LandslideRelatively Low$8,403/yr expected annual loss, about 2.0 events a year
  • Ice stormRelatively Moderate$149K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.2 events a year
  • Heat waveRelatively Low$439K/yr expected annual loss, about 11 events a year
  • Strong windRelatively Moderate$471K/yr expected annual loss, about 2.4 events a year
  • LightningRelatively Moderate$198K/yr expected annual loss, about 58 events a year
  • WildfireVery Low$24.5K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 517 years
  • Winter weatherRelatively Low$29K/yr expected annual loss, about 7.7 events a year
  • TornadoRelatively Low$518K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3 years
  • HurricaneVery Low$9,150/yr expected annual loss, about once every 44 years
  • DroughtVery Low$960/yr expected annual loss, about 4.1 events a year
  • HailVery Low$18.8K/yr expected annual loss, about 3.4 events a year

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: avalanche, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
37 of 3,058 (1.2%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
0
Flood claims since 1978
123
Claims paid since 1978
$5.4M

Flood claims paid per year

Flood claims paid per year in Carter County
Beta
  • Late spring severe storms$4.1M · 31 claims
  • March storm$496K · 20 claims
  • Early winter storms$55.9K · 6 claims
  • Mid-spring storms$37.1K · 8 claims
  • Flooding$35.2K · 5 claims
  • Not a named storm$13.3K · 1 claim

Storm history

Since 1996: 713 events, 2 deaths, $45.2M in damage

  • Hail81
  • Dense Fog78
  • Thunderstorm Wind71 · 1 death
  • Heat64
  • Winter Weather62
  • Strong Wind61
  • Frost/Freeze54
  • Drought46
  • Flood32
  • Flash Flood30 · 1 death
Beta

Events per year

Storm events per year in Carter County
27
28
22
31
41
24
20
21
23
23
34
38
29
35
29
42
23
33
34
11
Beta

22 tornadoes on record (EF0 5, EF1 3, EF2 1, EF3 2, F0 2, F1 2, F2 3, F3 1, F4 3).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • TornadoF4, 20.5 mi path, 300 yd wide04/24/2002

    Van Buren, Carter County

    2 injured, $15M damage

    What happened

    The tornado damage path began on the west side of Van Buren, right along the Current River, and crossed U.S. Route 60 very close to the Current River bridge. Two businesses in Van Buren, a lodge and a restaurant, were heavily damaged by F-2 intensity winds. The tornado travelled southeast across hilly and forested terrain until reaching the community of Ellsinore. Damage on the south side of Ellsinore was severe, where about 7 businesses were destroyed. Most of the damage at Ellsinore, which was inflicted by F-4 intensity winds, occurred along and near U.S. Highway 60. Across Carter County, 13 homes were destroyed and 12 homes suffered major damage. The tornado then moved into the Mark Twain National Forest and crossed into Butler County north of Highway 60.

  • Thunderstorm Wind61 kt wind06/21/2019

    Van Buren, Carter County

    1 death, 2 injured, $20K damage

    What happened

    Within the Ozark National Scenic Riverways, a tree fell on a boat on the Current River. The boat was traveling downstream in the vicinity of the Waymeyer Shute river access point. The 22-year-old male driver of the boat was killed, and two passengers in their 20's were moderately injured. The injured parties were from the local area and were treated at a local hospital. In the same general vicinity, trees and large tree limbs were down on the north end of M Highway.

  • Flash Flood03/09/2006

    Ellsinore, Carter County

    1 death, $25K damage

    What happened

    Flash flooding of Ten Mile Creek caused the death of a 57-year-old man. The man drowned when the flat bed truck he was driving was swept off the road as he was attempting to cross the creek. The incident occurred on a private gravel road off Highway B. The truck was swept downstream about 50 yards and overturned in the creek, resting upside down. The body was recovered still in the truck. The incident was estimated to have happened around 6 A.M. CST when he attempted to drive across the creek to a hog barn.

  • Flood05/01/2017

    Van Buren, Carter County

    $10M damage

    What happened

    A catastrophic flood on the Current River inflicted very heavy damage to Van Buren and the surrounding riverbank areas. The river crested over 8 feet above the record crest. Several hours before midnight on May 1, the river crested at 37.20 feet on the Van Buren river gage. The old record was 29.00 feet, set in March of 1904. About 238 homes were damaged or destroyed, about half of which were seasonal vacation homes. Whole houses were swept downriver. About 30 businesses were flooded. A large percentage of flood victims were evacuated to temporary shelters in Van Buren. The sheriff department in Van Buren literally floated about 100 feet off its foundation. Floodwaters were more than eight feet deep in the county courthouse. At least 30 water rescues were conducted by the Missouri State Highway Patrol and the National Park Service. A dusk-to-dawn curfew was enacted for residents of the city of Van Buren. Cell phone service was knocked out for a large portion of the area. The governor of Missouri toured the Van Buren area. The governor credited first responders with saving hundreds of lives by boat during the severe but relatively short-lived flood. Damage to public property,...

  • Wildfire03/14/2025

    Carter

    $10M damage

    What happened

    The Turley 2 wildfire, located about 2 miles east northeast of Fremont in the Mark Twain National Forest, was reported by U.S. Forest Service personnel. Fanned by south southeast winds gusting 35-50mph through the evening, the fire burnt 94.5 acres before being completely extinguished. In addition to the gusty winds, response to the fire was hindered by a series of tornadic storms that swept across southeast Missouri later in the evening. A deadly EF-3 tornado ripped a path just west and north of Fremont.

  • TornadoF2, 7.6 mi path, 200 yd wide04/24/2004

    Ellsinore, Carter County

    5 injured, $600K damage

    What happened

    The tornado touched down about one mile south of the intersection of U.S. Highway 60 and County Highway 233 in eastern Carter County. The tornado tracked north-northeast, passing only about a mile west of the town of Ellsinore. The tornado damage path ended on County Road 365 less than one half mile before reaching the Wayne County line. Peak winds in the tornado were estimated at 150 MPH. Most of the injured were in a mobile home on the north side of U.S. Highway 60. Their mobile home was picked up and thrown into some trees. One person was critically injured. The critically injured person was paralyzed when her back and neck was broken, and she was airlifted to a St. Louis area hospital. Another person received a broken arm, and most of the remaining injuries were scrapes and cuts. The tornado destroyed a total of three mobile homes, a storage facility, and numerous sheds. Two homes and one business were severely damaged. Numerous vehicles were damaged.

Drinking water

6 community water systems serve about 2,909 people. Violations since 2021.

None of the systems serving this county had a health-based violation in this period.

  • Van Buren PwsServes 819 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
  • Deer Run Reorganized Common Sewer DistServes 700 · Purchased groundwater · PrivateNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Carter County Pwsd 1Serves 600 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Ellsinore PwsServes 500 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+5 monitoring or reporting
  • Grandin PwsServes 240 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Carter County Pwsd 2Serves 50 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+6 monitoring or reporting

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Pollution sites

0 Superfund sites and 1 toxic release facility in Carter County

Superfund sites

None in this county.

Toxic release facilities

Total: 1,360 lbs in 2024, 1,360 lbs to air.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk24 historic places

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Carter County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Carter County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $10.7M a year. The highest-rated hazards are earthquake (relatively low), cold wave (relatively moderate), landslide (relatively low).
What storms are most common in Carter County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 713 storm events affecting Carter County, most often hail (81), dense fog (78), thunderstorm wind (71).
How many tornadoes have hit Carter County?
22 tornadoes have been recorded in Carter County since 1950, including 6 rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
How many homes in Carter County have flood insurance?
37 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Carter County, covering about 1.2% of homes. The program has paid $5.4M on 123 claims here since 1978.
What is the weather like in Carter County?
At Clearwater Dam, average highs reach 89°F in Jul and lows fall to 23°F in Jan, with 48.7 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.

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