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Risk: Very Low

Bailey County, TX Environment & Hazard Risk

Very Low natural hazard risk, led by drought. 490 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$7.8M
Very Low nationally
Storm events since 1996
490
Most often hail
Flood insurance policies
12
0.5% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
0
Since 1851

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Very Low

Score 42.4 of 100

Social vulnerability

Very High

Score 91.3 of 100

Community resilience

Very Low

Score 1.8 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $2.1B · Agriculture value exposed: $460M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $13.9M

Risk by hazard

  • DroughtRelatively High$2.1M/yr expected annual loss, about 88 events a year
  • HailRelatively High$1.7M/yr expected annual loss, about 4.4 events a year
  • WildfireRelatively Low$673K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 75 years
  • Strong windRelatively Moderate$585K/yr expected annual loss, about 2.0 events a year
  • Winter weatherRelatively Moderate$66.7K/yr expected annual loss, about 7.6 events a year
  • Cold waveRelatively Low$996K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.7 events a year
  • TornadoRelatively Low$553K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
  • HurricaneVery Low$15.7K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years
  • Heat waveVery Low$93.5K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.4 events a year
  • EarthquakeVery Low$24.5K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3,268 years
  • Ice stormVery Low$8,357/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3 years
  • LightningVery Low$34.9K/yr expected annual loss, about 49 events a year
  • LandslideVery Low$1/yr expected annual loss, about once every 13 years

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: avalanche, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
12 of 2,285 (0.5%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
0

Storm history

Since 1996: 490 events, 1 death, $24.8M in damage

  • Hail135
  • Drought92
  • High Wind61
  • Thunderstorm Wind57
  • Winter Weather49
  • Flash Flood20
  • Winter Storm16 · 1 death
  • Tornado12
  • Heavy Snow10
  • Wildfire9
Beta

Events per year

Storm events per year in Bailey County
19
16
21
12
26
24
16
23
12
5
7
12
17
10
16
16
11
14
20
8
Beta

57 tornadoes on record (EF0 3, EF2 1, F0 24, F1 16, F2 6, F3 2).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • Winter Storm01/28/2010

    Bailey

    1 death, $20K damage

    What happened

    A deadly winter storm produced widespread snow and ice accumulations and resulted in significant damage across the west Texas South Plains during the daytime hours of the 28th. ||Wintry precipitation began to overspread the region in the hours after sunrise. Although heavy snowfall (including thunder-snow) was common over the western South Plains and the extreme southwestern Panhandle, the precipitation began to fall as freezing rain over much of the central South Plains, the extreme southeastern Panhandle, and the northern Rolling Plains. A layer of ice, that in some cases became topped by accumulating snow, downed trees and utilities. This led to widespread damages from fallen trees and power lines. More than 200 power poles were snapped by the weight of ice and snow in Floyd County, and another 40 poles were downed in Hale County. A downed power pole and line in Olton (Lamb County) fell onto four parked vehicles in the high school parking lot, and the live utility wire caused a fire that destroyed one of the cars. Approximately 20,000 South Plains homes and businesses were without power at the height of the storm, and at least two homes were heavily damaged in Lubbock...

  • Blizzard12/27/2015

    Bailey

    $6M damage

    What happened

    Following a mild Christmas, a strong cold front arrived early on the morning of the 26th ahead of temperatures falling to freezing territory throughout the course of the afternoon all in advance of a slow-moving upper low in the Desert Southwest and far north-central Mexico. Northerly winds increased in intensity during the day and by early evening were frequently gusting between 50 and 60 mph over the entire South Plains. These winds created several power outages, minor roof damage, downed tree limbs, and even toppled some trees completely. By mid-evening on the 26th, exceptionally rich moisture from the Gulf of Mexico deepened over the shallow dome of cold air and resulted in large areas of freezing rain and sleet punctuated by thunderstorms. This wintry mix quickly changed over to all snow by late evening over the western South Plains as an elevated layer of warm air was eroded. With winds still frequently gusting to 60 mph, instant whiteout conditions were reported from Morton south to Seminole from heavy snow and blowing snow.||The blizzard expanded slowly east through the night to the edge of the Caprock until mid-level dry slotting arrived on the morning of the 27th...

  • Wildfire01/28/2008

    Bailey

    3 injured, $75K damage

    What happened

    A wind-driven wildfire ignited three miles south-southwest of Muleshoe shortly before 15:30 CST and rapidly spread northeastward. The wildfire burned an estimated 20,000 acres of brush and grassland atop the area's sand hills. The city of Muleshoe was briefly threatened by the blaze and some homes were evacuated, but the fire ran just southeast of the town. However, a few outbuildings and at least one barn were destroyed. Two firefighters also were treated for smoke inhalation. In addition, a number of roadways were closed by local officials due to the fire and associated smoke, including U.S. Highway 84. ||A resurgence of strong winds around 04:00 CST caused a flare up of the fire east of Muleshoe. A mobile home and a few vehicles were destroyed. The occupant of the mobile home suffered third-degree burn injuries.

  • Winter Weather12/30/2014

    Bailey

    3 injured

    What happened

    Following an arctic front the night prior, widespread freezing drizzle developed early on the morning of the 31st throughout much of the region before mixing with and changing to very light snow. East of the Caprock Escarpment, the duration of freezing drizzle was limited to just a couple of hours compared to nearly 30 hours on the Caprock where the worst impacts were felt. With temperatures in the teens and 20s, many roads and streets developed a thin glaze of ice that later became coated with light snow up to one inch. Treacherous road conditions led to hundreds of vehicle accidents across the South Plains with some serious injuries noted northwest of Post (Garza County) and also near Muleshoe (Bailey County). Conditions at Lubbock Preston Smith Airport were so bad that the airport officially shut down at 2300 CST on the 30th before re-opening for limited flights by the afternoon of the 31st. Combined with the closure, dozens of canceled flights earlier in the day stranded some flyers at the airport for nearly 24 hours. The precipitation gradually dissipated in coverage by late afternoon on New Year's Eve, however temperatures remained well below freezing all day prolonging...

  • Winter Storm01/29/1999

    Bailey

    $1.5M damage

    What happened

    An intense winter storm severely impacted the northwestern South Plains and the extreme southwest Panhandle on the 29th and 30th. Over a foot of snow fell across parts of Parmer and Bailey Counties, where drifts reached as high as 6 feet and major highways were closed for hours. Five to seven inches of snow fell in Castro, Swisher, Lamb, and Cochran Counties. Some of these same areas received significant accumulations of freezing rain. The combined effect of this storm snapped numerous trees and tree limbs, and caused many thousands of people to lose power (some for more than two full days). In Swisher County alone, approximately 700 power poles were snapped or brought down due to the weight of the freezing rain and snow. The storm finally tapered off during the early hours on the 30th.The very early part of the storm may have contributed to 3 indirect fatalities and 8 indirect injuries due to a vehicle accident on U.S. Highway 84, seven miles southeast of Farwell in southern Parmer County. However, DPS officials attributed at least some of the blame of this accident to the "unsafe rate of speed" of the vehicle.

  • Hail2.75" hail09/17/2017

    Enochs, Bailey County

    $1.3M damage

    What happened

    Broadcast media relayed damage photos of a significant hailstorm that struck the community of Bula. Wind-driven hail as large as baseballs pummeled crops and caused extensive damage to siding, windows and roofs to dozens of buildings in the area.

Drinking water

2 community water systems serve about 5,188 people. Violations since 2021.

1 system had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 1 system had a violation of any kind still open at last report.

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Pollution sites

0 Superfund sites and 0 toxic release facilities in Bailey County

No Superfund sites or toxic release facilities in Bailey County in our data.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Bailey County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Bailey County very low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $7.8M a year. The highest-rated hazards are drought (relatively high), hail (relatively high), wildfire (relatively low).
What storms are most common in Bailey County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 490 storm events affecting Bailey County, most often hail (135), drought (92), high wind (61).
How many tornadoes have hit Bailey County?
57 tornadoes have been recorded in Bailey County since 1950, including 2 rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
How many homes in Bailey County have flood insurance?
12 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Bailey County, covering about 0.5% of homes.
What is the weather like in Bailey County?
At Muleshoe 19 S, average highs reach 92°F in Jul and lows fall to 22°F in Jan, with 17.9 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.

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