Frederick County, VA Environment & Hazard Risk
Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by landslide. 904 storm events since 1996.
- Expected yearly loss
- $20M
- Relatively Low nationally
- Storm events since 1996
- 904
- Most often thunderstorm wind
- Flood insurance policies
- 94
- 0.3% of homes
- Hurricanes nearby
- 0
- 2 tropical storms or stronger since 1979
Natural hazard risk
FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025
Overall risk
Relatively Low
Score 44.7 of 100
Social vulnerability
Very Low
Score 10.6 of 100
Community resilience
Relatively Moderate
Score 54.5 of 100
Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.
Building value exposed: $18.8B · Agriculture value exposed: $43.5M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $14.8M
Risk by hazard
- LandslideRelatively Low$21.5K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
- HurricaneRelatively Low$1.7M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 17 years
- DroughtRelatively Moderate$874K/yr expected annual loss, about 4.1 events a year
- Heat waveRelatively Low$1M/yr expected annual loss, about 3.3 events a year
- Winter weatherRelatively Moderate$147K/yr expected annual loss, about 13 events a year
- EarthquakeRelatively Low$633K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 812 years
- HailRelatively Low$523K/yr expected annual loss, about 2.9 events a year
- WildfireVery Low$105K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 920 years
- Strong windRelatively Moderate$879K/yr expected annual loss, about 5.0 events a year
- LightningRelatively Low$297K/yr expected annual loss, about 38 events a year
- TornadoRelatively Low$882K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 6 years
- AvalancheVery Low$75/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years
- Ice stormVery Low$23.2K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3 years
- Cold waveVery Low$169K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.9 events a year
Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.
Flood risk and insurance
National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps
Check the flood zone for an address
- Homes with flood insurance
- 94 of 34,302 (0.3%)
- Homes in high-risk flood zones
- 1,052
- Insured in high-risk zones
- 29 (3%)
- Flood claims since 1978
- 57
- Claims paid since 1978
- $552K
Flood claims paid per year
- Hurricane Fran$66.1K · 2 claims
- Flooding$50K · 2 claims
- Tropical Storm Ivan$39.6K · 3 claims
- Hurricane Sandy$28.4K · 4 claims
- Hurricane Debby$12.9K · 1 claim
Storm history
Since 1996: 904 events, 2 deaths, $29.2M in damage
- Thunderstorm Wind248
- Winter Weather128
- Flood116
- Hail72
- Winter Storm66 · 1 death
- Dense Fog65
- Frost/Freeze36
- Flash Flood34 · 1 death
- Heat33
- High Wind18
Events per year
11 tornadoes on record (EF0 3, EF1 1, F0 2, F1 3, F2 2).
Most damaging storms
Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage
- Winter Storm02/14/2003
Frederick
1 death, $1.4M damage
What happened
A complex storm system produced copious amounts of wintery precipitation across the northern third of Virginia between the evening of the 14th and midday on the 18th. The first batch of precipitation fell between the evening of the 14th and the evening of the 15th in the form of light to moderate snow or rain. The second batch of precipitation fell between midnight on the 16th through midday on the 17th in the form of heavy snow or sleet. The third batch of precipitation on the back side of the storm fell between the evening of the 17th and midday on the 18th in the form of scattered snow showers. After the precipitation came to an end, record breaking snow and sleet accumulations were reported. Across the Northern Shenandoah Valley and the northwest Virginia suburbs of Washington D.C., accumulations of mainly snow ranged from 20 to 36 inches. Across the North Central Shenandoah Valley, the North Central Foothills, and the west and southwest Virginia suburbs of Washington D.C., accumulations of snow and sleet ranged from 12 to 20 inches. Across the South Central Shenandoah Valley, the South Central Foothills, and the Northern Piedmont, accumulations of mainly sleet ranged...
- Flash Flood05/16/2014
Brucetown, Frederick County
1 death, 1 injured, $5,000 damage
What happened
Old Charles Town Road was flooded at Opequon Creek.
- High Wind50 kt wind09/19/2003
Frederick
$6.5M damage
What happened
By 9 pm on September 18, a rain band associated with Isabel had set up over the Shenandoah Valley and showers were training southward into the Blue Ridge Mountains on the east side of Augusta County. The rain gauge located at Upper Sherando had recorded over 6 inches of rain and more was to come. County officials quickly began evacuations of homes downstream. In all 350 people in the South River area would be evacuated and 21 of those ended up being by boat. Water flowed down the Black Creek at 60 mph washing out the bridge and several hundred feet of asphalt along Route 608. Four spillways to dams flooded causing damage but none of them failed. There was $125,000 damage to the Mill Creek Dam alone. Damages to public roads and equipment were estimated at $1 million. One home was destroyed and three businesses and four condos had major damage.
- Frost/Freeze04/10/1997
Frederick
$6.5M damage
What happened
A record cold arctic air mass overspread the northern Virginia piedmont and the Shenandoah Valley over night on the 9th and 10th, dropping temperatures into the upper teens to lower 20s across the entire area. These temperatures arrived on the heels of an above normal winter season, especially pronounced in late March, when peach and apple blossoms reached critical bloom stage up to 2 weeks ahead of schedule.Accelerated growth in the central Shenandoah Valley led to the highest kill percentage. Estimates from agricultural extension agents of the Virginia Dept. of Emergency Services showed at least 70 to 90 percent "kill" of the peach crop, and similar kills among the Red Delicious apple crop. Some of the statistics include: Clarke Co (VAZ031), $1.36 million, involving over 2800 acres; Frederick Co (VAZ028), 7200 apple and 420 peach acres significantly damaged; Warren Co (VAZ030), over 500 acres affected. Golden Delicious apples, a normally later blooming variety, escaped a major kill. Berry fruits sustained partial (but still substantial) kills.Across the northern Shenandoah Valley and piedmont, kills ranged from 30 to 70 percent - mainly due to slightly less accelerated...
- TornadoF1, 9 mi path, 250 yd wide09/17/2004
Middletown, Frederick County
2 injured, $1M damage
What happened
A tornado touched down in western Frederick County, Virginia on the 17th. The path of the storm was 9 miles long. It touched down about one mile east of Middletown and Interstate 81. Roof damage was noted to many barns and outbuildings. A large two story brick garage was nearly destroyed when its roof was blown off from strong F1 tornado winds. In the western end of the Stonebrook Farm Subdivision, an estimated 100 oak and other hardwood trees ranging from 18 to 36 inches in diameter topped or snapped 20 to 50 feet up from the base in roughly a 2 block area. One home was completely destroyed and over 100 others damaged due to falling trees.
- Hail3.5" hail04/23/1999
Winchester Arpt, Frederick County
$3M damage
What happened
A line of thunderstorms developed in West Virginia during the early afternoon and moved rapidly southeast across Northern Virginia. These storms produced very large hail in a 10 mile wide strip from Winchester in Frederick County to Woodbridge in Prince William County from 3:30 PM EDT to 5:00 PM EDT. Winds over 55 MPH also downed trees and power lines in Frederick and Clarke County between 3:30 PM EDT and 4:15 PM EDT. Frederick County spotters reported between 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 inch diameter hail. The rubber membrane roof of the War Memorial Building in Winchester was punctured by hail the size of golf balls, allowing heavy rain to fall inside the structure and cause significant water damage. Numerous cars were damaged by hail, averaging $1300 in repairs. Winchester city police reported damage to 15 cruisers, and automobile dealers on Valley Avenue reported damage to over 150 cars. Hundreds of other privately owned vehicles received dents and broken windshields. Property owners also reported damage to roofs, siding, windows, and landscaping from the 10 minute deluge. Northwest of Winchester, strong winds left behind a narrow path of uprooted or snapped trees and minor...
Drinking water
7 community water systems serve about 53,009 people. Violations since 2021.
1 system had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 1 system had a violation of any kind still open at last report.
- Frederick WaterServes 46,206 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
- Stephens City, Town ofServes 2,700 · Purchased surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+4 monitoring or reporting
- Lake Holiday EstatesServes 2,130 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations
- Middletown, Town ofServes 1,390 · Purchased surface water · Local governmentNo health violations
- Shawnee LandServes 330 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations
- Tavenner ParkServes 228 · Groundwater · Private1 health violation
- Hilltop Mobile Home ParkServes 25 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations+11 monitoring or reporting
Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.
Pollution sites
1 Superfund site and 10 toxic release facilities in Frederick County
Superfund sites
- Rhinehart Tire Fire DumpDeletedFrederick County
Toxic release facilities
- Kingspan Insulation LLC47,745 lbs released, Winchester
- Darling Ingredients Inc-Winchester Facility23,560 lbs released, Winchester
- Fisher Diagnostics a Div of Fisher Scientific Co14,836 lbs released, Middletown
- 8th Ave Food & Provisions10,500 lbs released, Winchester
- HP Hood LLC7,793 lbs released, Winchester
- Trex - Virginia Manufacturing Operations1,855 lbs released, Winchester
- O-N Minerals (Chemstone) Winchester Lime Plant197 lbs released, Clear Brook
- Concrete Pipe & Precast- Winchester45.9 lbs released, Winchester
- Titan Virginia Ready-Mix Llc-Clear Brook Plant20.8 lbs released, Clear Brook
- APG Mid-Atlantic - Winchesterunder 1 lb released, Winchester
Total: 106,553 lbs in 2024, 58,749 lbs to air.
Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk12 historic places
Frequently asked questions
- How risky is Frederick County for natural disasters?
- FEMA rates Frederick County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $20M a year. The highest-rated hazards are landslide (relatively low), hurricane (relatively low), drought (relatively moderate).
- What storms are most common in Frederick County?
- Since 1996, NOAA recorded 904 storm events affecting Frederick County, most often thunderstorm wind (248), winter weather (128), flood (116).
- How many tornadoes have hit Frederick County?
- 11 tornadoes have been recorded in Frederick County since 1950.
- How many homes in Frederick County have flood insurance?
- 94 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Frederick County, covering about 0.3% of homes. The program has paid $552K on 57 claims here since 1978.
- What is the weather like in Frederick County?
- At Winchester, average highs reach 86°F in Jul and lows fall to 24°F in Jan, with 40.7 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).
Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.