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Risk: Very Low

Orange County, VA Environment & Hazard Risk

Very Low natural hazard risk, led by drought. 835 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$11.1M
Very Low nationally
Storm events since 1996
835
Most often thunderstorm wind
Flood insurance policies
69
0.5% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
1
3 tropical storms or stronger since 1885

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Very Low

Score 25.6 of 100

Social vulnerability

Very Low

Score 12.2 of 100

Community resilience

Relatively Moderate

Score 42.7 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $9.2B · Agriculture value exposed: $146M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $9M

Risk by hazard

  • DroughtRelatively Moderate$1.4M/yr expected annual loss, about 3.5 events a year
  • HurricaneRelatively Low$1.7M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 12 years
  • EarthquakeRelatively Low$661K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 466 years
  • Strong windRelatively Low$636K/yr expected annual loss, about 4.7 events a year
  • Heat waveRelatively Low$337K/yr expected annual loss, about 4.7 events a year
  • LightningRelatively Low$207K/yr expected annual loss, about 41 events a year
  • HailRelatively Low$215K/yr expected annual loss, about 3.2 events a year
  • LandslideVery Low$527/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3 years
  • WildfireVery Low$19K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 1,877 years
  • Winter weatherRelatively Low$34.3K/yr expected annual loss, about 8.0 events a year
  • TornadoVery Low$482K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 6 years
  • Ice stormVery Low$25.7K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
  • Cold waveVery Low$80.7K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.1 events a year

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: avalanche, coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
69 of 14,967 (0.5%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
35
Insured in high-risk zones
19 (54%)
Flood claims since 1978
20
Claims paid since 1978
$279K

Flood claims paid per year

Flood claims paid per year in Orange County
Beta
  • Mid-spring storms$12.7K · 1 claim
  • Hurricane Irene$6,465 · 2 claims
  • Hurricane Isabel$0 · 1 claim

Storm history

Since 1996: 835 events, 0 deaths, $15.7M in damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind268
  • Flood99
  • Dense Fog99
  • Winter Weather83
  • Heat51
  • Hail48
  • Winter Storm41
  • Frost/Freeze36
  • Flash Flood34
  • Drought11
Beta

Events per year

Storm events per year in Orange County
32
15
21
23
50
37
28
39
22
33
21
56
50
60
41
29
7
23
48
9
Beta

14 tornadoes on record (EF0 2, EF1 1, F0 2, F1 5, F2 2, F3 1).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • Drought08/01/1999

    Orange

    $10M damage

    What happened

    High pressure was the dominant weather feature across Northern Virginia through the 24th of August. Most rain producing storm systems steered north of the region through the period. This resulted in the continuation of the climatological, meteorological, and hydrological drought which has plagued the area since last summer. Heavy rain fell east of the Blue Ridge Mountains on the 25th and 27th, helping to fill surface reservoirs. Unfortunately, because most of the rain fell in the form of thunderstorm downpours, most of the moisture ran off into rivers before it had the chance to seep into the aquifer supply. Groundwater reserves remained unaffected and wells and springs remained short of water. High temperatures were at or above 90 degrees through the 19th then cooled into the 70s and 80s for the remainder of the month. By the 26th of August the Palmer Drought Index, a measure of long term drought conditions, indicated Northern Virginia was in an extreme drought. From September 1998 through August 1999 precipitation was a staggering 8 to 14 inches below average. August rainfall totalled 5.46 inches at Dulles Airport in Loudoun County, 1.49 inches above normal. However...

  • High Wind50 kt wind09/18/2003

    Orange

    1 injured, $1.7M damage

    What happened

    By 9 pm on September 18, a rain band associated with Isabel had set up over the Shenandoah Valley and showers were training southward into the Blue Ridge Mountains on the east side of Augusta County. The rain gauge located at Upper Sherando had recorded over 6 inches of rain and more was to come. County officials quickly began evacuations of homes downstream. In all 350 people in the South River area would be evacuated and 21 of those ended up being by boat. Water flowed down the Black Creek at 60 mph washing out the bridge and several hundred feet of asphalt along Route 608. Four spillways to dams flooded causing damage but none of them failed. There was $125,000 damage to the Mill Creek Dam alone. Damages to public roads and equipment were estimated at $1 million. One home was destroyed and three businesses and four condos had major damage.

  • Thunderstorm Wind06/07/2002

    Flatrun, Orange County

    1 injured, $200K damage

    What happened

    Numerous trees and power lines were downed onto roads and houses. One person was injured when a tree fell onto their Lake of the Woods home.

  • Flood09/06/1996

    Orange

    $1.1M damage

    What happened

    The rapid runoff produced by the heavy rains from Fran caused substantial, damaging, and in some cases record river flooding across much of the northern Virginia watershed from late on the 6th until early on the 10th. Flash flooding on the 6th rapidly became river flooding late on the 6th along the headwaters of the Potomac, Shenandoah, and Rappahannock River basins, and continued throughout the basins over the weekend and into early the following week. Crests at gaging points in these basins were similar to those in January 1996 across the Lower Main Stem of the Potomac. Levels were 1 to 5 feet higher across the Upper Main Stem Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers. The Shenandoah Basin had levels similar to the October 1942 flood with three points reaching record levels (Lynnwood, Cootes Store, and Strasburg).There were numerous road closures, rescues, evacuations, washed out and damaged bridges and culverts; the flood also produced major agricultural damage. Debris covered pasture and farmland, and filled small creeks and streams to levels higher than surrounding roads, which redirected the natural stream flow. River sand and mud covered streets and multiple levels of homes...

  • Thunderstorm Wind52 kt wind01/01/2025

    Thornhill, Orange County

    1 injured, $10K damage

    What happened

    A large tree blew down onto an occupied vehicle in the 17000 block of VA-669 Marquis Road.

  • Flash Flood09/06/1996

    Countywide, Orange County

    $580K damage

Drinking water

6 community water systems serve about 20,808 people. Violations since 2021.

1 system had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step.

  • WildernessServes 13,274 · Surface water · Local government8 health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
  • Orange, Town ofServes 5,022 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
  • Gordonsville, Town ofServes 1,800 · Purchased surface water · Local governmentNo health violations
  • Rsa Route 20Serves 390 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations
  • Rsa Route 15Serves 284 · Purchased surface water · Local governmentNo health violations
  • Wolftrap WoodsServes 38 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Pollution sites

0 Superfund sites and 0 toxic release facilities in Orange County

No Superfund sites or toxic release facilities in Orange County in our data.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk11 historic places

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Orange County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Orange County very low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $11.1M a year. The highest-rated hazards are drought (relatively moderate), hurricane (relatively low), earthquake (relatively low).
What storms are most common in Orange County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 835 storm events affecting Orange County, most often thunderstorm wind (268), flood (99), dense fog (99).
How many tornadoes have hit Orange County?
14 tornadoes have been recorded in Orange County since 1950, including 1 rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
How many homes in Orange County have flood insurance?
69 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Orange County, covering about 0.5% of homes. The program has paid $279K on 20 claims here since 1978.
What is the weather like in Orange County?
At Piedmont Rsch Stn, average highs reach 87°F in Jul and lows fall to 25°F in Jan, with 43.7 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.

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