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Risk: Relatively High

Merced County, CA Environment & Hazard Risk

Relatively High natural hazard risk, led by drought. 689 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$205M
Relatively High nationally
Storm events since 1996
689
Most often flood
Flood insurance policies
3,886
5.2% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
0
Since 1851

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Relatively High

Score 96.9 of 100

Social vulnerability

Relatively High

Score 61.7 of 100

Community resilience

Very Low

Score 7.3 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $57.6B · Agriculture value exposed: $3.8B · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $263M

Risk by hazard

  • DroughtVery High$70.2M/yr expected annual loss, about 74 events a year
  • EarthquakeRelatively High$62.4M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 11 years
  • Heat waveRelatively High$10.2M/yr expected annual loss, about 10 events a year
  • WildfireRelatively Moderate$1.6M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 193 years
  • LightningRelatively High$739K/yr expected annual loss, about 6.6 events a year
  • HailRelatively Low$403K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 7 years
  • LandslideVery Low$1,520/yr expected annual loss, about 15 events a year
  • Volcanic activityVery Low$10/yr expected annual loss, about once every 5,000 years
  • TornadoRelatively Low$322K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 5 years
  • Strong windRelatively Low$151K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 26 years
  • Winter weatherVery Low$14K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 4 years
  • AvalancheVery Low$1/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: coastal flooding, cold wave, hurricane, ice storm, riverine flooding, tsunami.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
3,886 of 74,382 (5.2%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
15,210
Insured in high-risk zones
3,699 (24%)
Flood claims since 1978
499
Claims paid since 1978
$14.7M

Flood claims paid per year

Flood claims paid per year in Merced County
Beta
  • California Atmospheric River$10.1M · 202 claims
  • Pineapple Express - Southern$1.4M · 78 claims
  • Flooding$72.9K · 8 claims

Storm history

Since 1996: 689 events, 2 deaths, $59.3M in damage

  • Flood127
  • Dense Fog121 · 2 deaths
  • Drought75
  • Frost/Freeze70
  • Heat61
  • High Wind58
  • Excessive Heat41
  • Funnel Cloud32
  • Heavy Rain29
  • Strong Wind19
Beta

Events per year

Storm events per year in Merced County
Beta

17 tornadoes on record (EF0 1, F0 11, F1 4).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • Dense Fog01/18/2024

    Merced-Madera-Mendota

    1 death, 6 injured, $100K damage

    What happened

    Visibility below a quarter mile was reported in Atwater, Merced and Madera. Several webcams showed visibility below 1000 feet. A 6 vehicle accident with three tractor trailers and three cars occurred at 557 PST on Westbound SR 152 at Road 9. The accident resulted in one fatality and several serious injuries. Visibility was below 1000 feet during the time of the accident.

  • Flash Flood03/25/1998

    Merced, Merced County

    $11.1M damage

    What happened

    Over 65 homes and 19 apartments were flooded in and around Merced City as the result of torrential/record-setting rainfall in the previous 18 hours.

  • Dense Fog12/03/2021

    Merced-Madera-Mendota

    1 death, $250K damage

    What happened

    Visibility below a quarter mile was reported in Atwater, Merced and Madera. Several webcams showed visibility below 1000 feet. California Highway Patrol was pacing traffic on SR 99 for several hours during the morning. California Highway Patrol also reported several fog realted multiple car accidents west of Chowchilla where visibility was below 100 feet. One accidents at the intersection of SR 152 and Ave. 9 at 836 PST resulted in one fatality. Several school districts either opened late or delayed or cancelled bus service.

  • Heavy Rain05/01/1998

    Merced, Merced County

    $10.2M damage

    What happened

    The final estimated total damage figures for agriculture by county for the late winter/spring rain and below normal temperatures (Februrary through May) in Central California:Madera $7.1M ... Merced $10.2M ... Fresno $7.2M ... Kern $5.9M ... Kings $73.6M ... Tulare $5.3M. Fresno County had specifically $464K damage in May from inclement weather. For the rain season through May 31, Fresno had 71 days of measurable rain with Bakersfield having 68. Total rainfall for Bakersfield in May was 1.33" which was the 5th wettest on record ... Fresno had 1.37" which was the 8th wettest. Bakersfield's year-to-date total as of 5/31/98 was 14.36" eclipsing the old record set in 1977-78 of 11.78" and compared to a normal of only 5.72". Fresno's total rain was at 18.43" which is the 5th wettest on record and compares to a normal of 10.60"/year. There were no 90 degree days in Fresno or Bakersfield in May 1998. This is only the third time on record for either city that the warmest day did not reach 90 degrees during the month. The average monthly temperature for Bakersfield was only 61.0 degs F with the old record of 61.7 degs F in 1911. Fresno's average monthly temperature was 62.0 degs...

  • Flood01/09/2023

    Atwater Muni Arpt, Merced County

    $10M damage

    What happened

    The Merced County Emergency Manager reported that several mandatory evacuations took place in Merced County as a result of flooding, The impacted areas included Planada which was completely evacuated as well as portions of Merced. Rainfall amounts in the Merced area were between 2 and 3 inches between noon on January 9 and the early morning of January 10 resulting in several cars being stranded and abandoned in flood waters as SR 99 through Merced and 16th St. in Merced were inundated with flood waters. A Flood Warning was already in place for Bear Creek since January 8 and continued through January 11. Bear Creek overflowed and peaked at a new record crest of 26.2 feet during the morning of January 10. Due to the anticipated severity of this event, resources were deployed to the Merced County EOC during the event with frequent live briefings taking place. In addition the the evacuations the took place in and around Merced, Amtrak cancelled several trains and buses through and into Merced due to the train station being flooded.

  • Flood04/04/2006

    Merced Arpt, Merced County

    $9.7M damage

    What happened

    Due to continued heavy rain and subsequent high stream flows, a break in Black Rascal Creek flooded homes in north Merced. And Bear Creek raised over its banks in West Merced flooding a residential section in that vicinity. Overall there were approximately 300 homes flooded around Merced with over 500 people evacuated during the event.

Drinking water

22 community water systems serve about 242,181 people. Violations since 2021.

13 systems had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 12 systems had a violation of any kind still open at last report.

  • City of MercedServes 96,073 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations
  • City of Los BanosServes 48,896 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+1 monitoring or reporting
  • City of AtwaterServes 29,479 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations
  • City of LivingstonServes 14,894 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Winton Water & Sanitary DistServes 9,745 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Delhi CwdServes 7,784 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • City of Dos PalosServes 7,452 · Surface water · Local government13 health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • City of GustineServes 6,138 · Groundwater · Local government1 health violation+1 monitoring or reporting

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Pollution sites

1 Superfund site and 14 toxic release facilities in Merced County

Superfund sites

Toxic release facilities

Total: 275,401 lbs in 2024, 143,966 lbs to air.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk13 historic places

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Merced County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Merced County relatively high for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $205M a year. The highest-rated hazards are drought (very high), earthquake (relatively high), heat wave (relatively high).
What storms are most common in Merced County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 689 storm events affecting Merced County, most often flood (127), dense fog (121), drought (75).
How many tornadoes have hit Merced County?
17 tornadoes have been recorded in Merced County since 1950.
How many homes in Merced County have flood insurance?
3,886 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Merced County, covering about 5.2% of homes. The program has paid $14.7M on 499 claims here since 1978.
What is the weather like in Merced County?
At Merced MUNI AP, average highs reach 96°F in Jul and lows fall to 36°F in Dec, with 11.8 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.

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