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Risk: Relatively Low

Frederick County, MD Environment & Hazard Risk

Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by winter weather. 1,546 storm events since 1996.

Expected yearly loss
$49.87M
Relatively Low nationally
Storm events since 1996
1,546
Most often thunderstorm wind
Flood insurance policies
501
0.6% of homes
Hurricanes nearby
1
8 tropical storms or stronger since 1876

Natural hazard risk

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025

Overall risk

Relatively Low

Score 74.2 of 100

Social vulnerability

Very Low

Score 10.6 of 100

Community resilience

Relatively High

Score 77.8 of 100

Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.

Building value exposed: $56B · Agriculture value exposed: $169M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $34.24M

Risk by hazard

  • Winter weatherRelatively High$645K/yr expected annual loss, about 14 events a year
  • Heat waveRelatively Moderate$3.1M/yr expected annual loss, about 4.2 events a year
  • LightningRelatively High$1.23M/yr expected annual loss, about 37 events a year
  • Strong windRelatively Moderate$2.02M/yr expected annual loss, about 7.7 events a year
  • HurricaneRelatively Low$2.6M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 11 years
  • HailRelatively Moderate$1.06M/yr expected annual loss, about 3.8 events a year
  • EarthquakeRelatively Low$1.69M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 920 years
  • DroughtRelatively Moderate$898K/yr expected annual loss, about 4.0 events a year
  • TornadoRelatively Moderate$3.5M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
  • LandslideRelatively Low$6,643/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
  • Ice stormRelatively Low$151K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.0 events a year
  • Cold waveRelatively Low$710K/yr expected annual loss, about 1.8 events a year
  • WildfireVery Low$18.77K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 13,919 years
  • AvalancheVery Low$66/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years

Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami, volcanic activity.

Flood risk and insurance

National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps

Check the flood zone for an address

Homes with flood insurance
501 of 88,569 (0.6%)
Homes in high-risk flood zones
781
Insured in high-risk zones
151 (19%)
Flood claims since 1978
271
Claims paid since 1978
$2.07M

Flood claims paid per year

Flood claims paid per year in Frederick County
  • Flooding$532K · 27 claims
  • Hurricane Fran$280K · 21 claims
  • Hurricane Ida$88.68K · 7 claims
  • Hurricane Sandy$18.06K · 4 claims
  • Hurricane Isabel$3,817 · 4 claims
  • Hurricane Irene$1,409 · 1 claim

Storm history

Since 1996: 1,546 events, 16 deaths, $103M in damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind577
  • Flood219
  • Winter Weather145
  • Flash Flood96 · 6 deaths
  • Dense Fog89
  • Winter Storm75 · 1 death
  • Hail70
  • Frost/Freeze46
  • Heat41 · 1 death
  • High Wind35 · 1 death

Events per year

Storm events per year in Frederick County

38 tornadoes on record (EF0 6, EF1 6, F0 5, F1 17, F2 3, F3 1).

Most damaging storms

Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage

  • Flash Flood06/27/2006

    Countywide, Frederick County

    5 deaths, 1 injured, $500K damage

    What happened

    A mudslide closed a section of Harp Mill Road in Wolfsville. Numerous road closures and water rescues were reported countywide. The Monacacy River overflowed, flooding a parking lot and field along Monocacy Boulevard. Basement flooding occurred in Emmitsburg, Myersville and Middletown. Shank Road was closed indefinitely to repair a washed-out pipe.Three adults died when they were washed out of the bed of a pickup truck east of Myersville. They evacuated their car when it stalled in high water near Ellerton on Route 17 along the Middle Creek around 830 PM. The driver of the pickup truck gave the three a ride shortly before the three people went missing. It is unsure whether they were swept out or tried to swim. Additionally, two teenagers died after exploring Little Pipe Creek in New Midway along the Frederick-Carroll County line. They were last seen at 630 PM when they left home to explore Little Pipe Creek in Carroll County. One bicycle and some clothing belonging to the boys was found at the bank of the creek near MD Route 194. Authorities believe the boys went swimming and were washed away. The currents on June 28 were so strong that one of the rescue boats capsized and...

  • Flash Flood05/16/2018

    Ft Detrick, Frederick County

    $43.2M damage

    What happened

    Significant flash flooding occurred during the evening of May 15th from the city of Frederick southwestward toward Braddock Heights and Jefferson. The amount of damage shown here is total damage not already accounted for in other reports.

  • Heavy Rain07/08/2005

    Frederick, Frederick County

    2 deaths

    What happened

    According to print media reports, two people were killed in Frederick County when the vehicle they were driving struck a guardrail and overturned. This occurred when there was heavy rain in the area.

  • Flood01/19/1996

    Frederick

    $15M damage

    What happened

    *** River Flooding ***High dew point temperatures melted most of the snow on the ground within 12 hours, with liquid water equivalent ranging from 1 to 3 inches. Snowmelt combined with 1 to 3 inches of rain (some locations received 5 inches) to produce, in some cases, catastrophic river flooding. The flooding was the worst in the region since 1985. River flooding began during the flood/flash flood event along the headwaters of the basins and continued downstream through the 22nd. Crests ranged from 3 to 21 feet above flood stage. Record flooding occurred on Wills Creek near Cumberland (MDZ002), damaging all dwellings in the town of Locust Grove. Almost all dwellings in the town of Point of Rocks (MDZ004) were damaged by the flood waters in some way.Unfortunately, the National Park Service's C&O Canal and towpath was also severely damaged. Improvements made since the 1972 flooding (Tropical Storm Agnes) and 1985 were virtually destroyed once again. Damage was estimated at $20 million for the park that runs along the Potomac from western Maryland the Washington, DC. Largest losses were sustained just outside of Cumberland and along the southernmost stretch from Great...

  • Flash Flood06/19/1996

    N Portion, Frederick County

    1 death, $5M damage

  • Drought07/01/1997

    Frederick

    $14.2M damage

    What happened

    A very dry month, containing one 7-day heat wave, exacerbated drought-like conditions across much of the fertile farmland of Maryland. The weather in July proved to be the death knell for much of the crop yields, including corn, hay, alfalfa, and soybeans. Agricultural states of emergency were declared in many areas west of the Chesapeake Bay. Hardest-hit counties included Carroll (MDZ005), Frederick (MDZ004), Howard (MDZ010), Montgomery (MDZ009), and Washington (MDZ003). Some of the more impressive damage estimates were as follows: in Frederick Co, nearly $9 million in corn, an approximate 90 percent loss; an additional $5.5 million in corn for silage and soybean, a 60 percent loss. In Washington Co, an estimated $8.6 million in grain and silage corn, a 70 percent loss. In Montgomery Co, $2.5 million in grain corn and $2.1 million in soybeans, a 65 percent loss. Counties on the mid and upper eastern shore, known for their extensive corn production, had losses above $10 million in grain corn alone.

Latest storm reports

Newest first

  • Thunderstorm Wind52 kt wind07/28/2026

    Walkersville, Frederick County

    $10K damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind52 kt wind07/28/2026

    Woodsboro, Frederick County

    $10K damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind52 kt wind07/28/2026

    Thurmont, Frederick County

    $3,000 damage

  • Flash Flood07/22/2026

    Kemptown, Frederick County

  • Flash Flood07/18/2026

    Lime Kiln, Frederick County

  • Flash Flood07/18/2026

    Adamstown, Frederick County

  • Thunderstorm Wind61 kt wind07/18/2026

    Frederick, Frederick County

    $25K damage

  • Thunderstorm Wind52 kt wind07/18/2026

    Jefferson, Frederick County

    $2,000 damage

Hurricanes and tropical storms

Storms whose track crossed Frederick County, with the wind when it passed

Drinking water

28 community water systems serve about 182,823 people. Violations since 2021.

3 systems had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 2 systems had a violation of any kind still open at last report.

  • New Design - Frederick CountyServes 74,911 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+4 monitoring or reporting
  • City of FrederickServes 54,000 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations
  • Town of WalkersvilleServes 8,440 · Groundwater (surface influenced) · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Fort DetrickServes 7,900 · Surface water · Federal1 health violation+2 monitoring or reporting
  • City of BrunswickServes 7,312 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
  • Town of ThurmontServes 6,200 · Groundwater (surface influenced) · Local governmentNo health violations
  • Town of MiddletownServes 5,132 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
  • Town of EmmitsburgServes 2,921 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+5 monitoring or reporting

Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.

Climate

1991-2020 normals at Frederick Police Brks, 5.3 mi from the county center

Summer highs peak around 89°F in Jul and winter lows bottom out near 27°F in Jan. About 43.5 inches of rain falls in a typical year.

MonthHighLowRain
Jan43°F27°F2.58 in
Feb48°F29°F2.95 in
Mar55°F36°F3.71 in
Apr69°F45°F3.55 in
May77°F55°F3.99 in
Jun85°F63°F4.26 in
Jul89°F68°F3.90 in
Aug87°F66°F2.89 in
Sep80°F59°F5.80 in
Oct69°F47°F3.26 in
Nov56°F38°F2.66 in
Dec47°F31°F3.97 in
Year57°F average43.5 in

Pollution sites

1 Superfund site and 8 toxic release facilities in Frederick County

Superfund sites

Toxic release facilities

Total: under 1 lb in 2024, under 1 lb to air.

Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk45 historic places

Frequently asked questions

How risky is Frederick County for natural disasters?
FEMA rates Frederick County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $49.87M a year. The highest-rated hazards are winter weather (relatively high), heat wave (relatively moderate), lightning (relatively high).
What storms are most common in Frederick County?
Since 1996, NOAA recorded 1,546 storm events affecting Frederick County, most often thunderstorm wind (577), flood (219), winter weather (145).
How many tornadoes have hit Frederick County?
38 tornadoes have been recorded in Frederick County since 1950, including 1 rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
How many homes in Frederick County have flood insurance?
501 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Frederick County, covering about 0.6% of homes. The program has paid $2.07M on 271 claims here since 1978.
What is the weather like in Frederick County?
At Frederick Police Brks, average highs reach 89°F in Jul and lows fall to 27°F in Jan, with 43.5 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).

Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.