Lincoln County, NM Environment & Hazard Risk
Relatively Low natural hazard risk, led by wildfire. 709 storm events since 1996.
- Expected yearly loss
- $27.8M
- Relatively Low nationally
- Storm events since 1996
- 709
- Most often high wind
- Flood insurance policies
- 267
- 2.1% of homes
- Hurricanes nearby
- 0
- Since 1851
Natural hazard risk
FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025
Overall risk
Relatively Low
Score 79.5 of 100
Social vulnerability
Very High
Score 82.5 of 100
Community resilience
Very Low
Score 7.2 of 100
Community resilience runs the other way: a higher rating means a community can recover faster.
Building value exposed: $6.6B · Agriculture value exposed: $20.4M · Risk-adjusted yearly loss: $43M
Risk by hazard
- WildfireRelatively High$14.5M/yr expected annual loss, about once every 71 years
- Winter weatherRelatively High$204K/yr expected annual loss, about 8.4 events a year
- LightningRelatively High$639K/yr expected annual loss, about 59 events a year
- LandslideRelatively Low$7,057/yr expected annual loss, about 1.8 events a year
- Ice stormRelatively Moderate$140K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 4 years
- Volcanic activityVery Low$7/yr expected annual loss, about once every 10,000 years
- HailRelatively Low$117K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
- AvalancheVery Low$123/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years
- EarthquakeVery Low$31.4K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 921 years
- DroughtVery Low$1,579/yr expected annual loss, about 108 events a year
- Strong windVery Low$96.4K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 5 years
- HurricaneVery Low$2,516/yr expected annual loss, about once every 100 years
- Cold waveVery Low$68.5K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 8 years
- TornadoVery Low$46.8K/yr expected annual loss, about once every 2 years
- Heat waveVery Low$7,941/yr expected annual loss, about once every 3 years
Bars show the national percentile score (0 to 100) for each hazard. Dollar figures are expected annual losses to buildings, people and crops. Not rated here: coastal flooding, riverine flooding, tsunami.
Flood risk and insurance
National Flood Insurance Program and FEMA flood maps
Check the flood zone for an address
- Homes with flood insurance
- 267 of 12,788 (2.1%)
- Homes in high-risk flood zones
- 377
- Insured in high-risk zones
- 156 (41%)
- Flood claims since 1978
- 269
- Claims paid since 1978
- $17.1M
Flood claims paid per year
- 2025 July NM Flooding$7.1M · 66 claims
Storm history
Since 1996: 709 events, 11 deaths, $136M in damage
- High Wind162
- Drought156
- Hail123
- Flash Flood123 · 2 deaths
- Thunderstorm Wind36
- Heavy Snow29
- Debris Flow14 · 3 deaths
- Tornado14
- Wildfire14 · 4 deaths
- Funnel Cloud8
Events per year
23 tornadoes on record (EF0 10, EF1 1, F0 3, F1 6).
Most damaging storms
Since 1996, ranked by deaths, injuries and damage
- Debris Flow07/08/2025
Alto, Lincoln County
3 deaths, 2 injured, $50M damage
What happened
Extremely heavy rainfall from slow moving thunderstorms resulted in catastrophic flash flooding and destructive debris flows on and downstream of the South Fork burn scar. Debris flows and a record rise on the Rio Ruidoso from 1.43 feet to 20.24 feet in approximately 30 minutes overtopped bridges and roads, pushed some houses off their foundations and down canyons and hillsides, forced power outages, and resulted in water and sewer services. These extremely high flows destroyed the horse racetrack at Ruidoso Downs. Swift water teams rescued 65 individuals from homes, RV trailers, vehicles and from flood waters and debris flows. Up to 150 families and 400 homes were believed to be impacted and damaged. Tragically, three deaths were reported, including two young children when flood waters and debris flows overwhelmed and destroyed their RV. The parents of these children ended up being hospitalized due to suffering serious injuries while trying to save their children from the floodwaters. Two family dogs were also lost in the floodwaters. A federal disaster declaration was issued by the president two days after the catastrophic flash flooding to help free up federal funds and...
- Wildfire06/17/2024
South Central Mountains
2 deaths, $23M damage
What happened
The South Fork Fire was discovered on June 17th within tribal land along the Rio Ruidoso west of Ruidoso. It blew up in size within its first two days reaching 15,000 acres and destroying an estimated 1,400 structures. Two lives were lost, an as of yet identified person in a vehicle on Rainier Road due to the limited remains, and a 60 year old Patrick Pearson within the Swiss Chalet Motel. The fire's growth slowed considerably by the 19th due to heavy rainfall causing flash flooding on the burn scar. Flash flooding and debris flows exacerbated recovery efforts. Many of the structures lost were located within the eastern and northeastern portion of the burn area including areas from Alto to Cellars Canyon and Cedar Canyon down to the upper Rio Ruidoso. Damage is an estimate based on number of structures destroyed.
- Flood07/27/2008
Hollywood, Lincoln County
1 death, $25M damage
What happened
Widespread, serious flooding occurred from the upper canyon of the Rio Ruidoso downstream through the towns of Ruidoso, Hollywood and Ruidoso Downs as far east as Fox Caves. Flooding also occurred along the Rio Bonito from the dam at Bonito Lake downstream to State Road 48. Flooding was extensive in Ruidoso, not only along the Rio Ruidoso, Cedar Creek and other small streams, but also throughout the town from the 6 to 7 inches of rainfall that fell there. One man was killed when we was swept away by the raging Rio Ruidoso, but no other substantial injuries were reported. A total of 500 structures, including campers and mobile homes were damaged. Around 200 houses were damaged, and some were completely destroyed. At least 13 bridges were washed out and several cars were washed downstream. Several dozen recreational vehicles and campers were damaged at an RV park at Ruidoso Downs.
- Wildfire04/12/2022
South Central Mountains
2 deaths, $10M damage
What happened
The McBride Fire started on Tuesday, April 12, 2022, in Gavilan Canyon within the Village of Ruidoso and spread quickly due to 70 to 80 mph winds in the area. By Thursday, April 14th, the fire had burned more than 5,700 acres and burned 207 homes and structures while threatening 1,000 more. The wildfire prompted mandatory evacuations for an estimated 5,000 people. By Sunday, April 17th, the wildfire grew to 6,185 acres, but was 52 percent contained which allowed for evacuation orders to be lifted. At the end of the month on April 30th, the McBride Fire was 95 percent contained. The wildfire is estimated to be fully contained in early May. The cause of the wildfire is unknown. Unfortunately, this wildfire was responsible for the deaths of an elderly couple in Ruidoso. The couple tried to evacuate according to family members, but were unaccounted for. While their vehicle was still at their destroyed home, their remains were found near their home on Wednesday, April 13th. No other information has been made available. Damages are estimated.
- Lightning05/16/2015
Capitan, Lincoln County
1 death, 1 injured
What happened
Kalina Jinzo, a 40-year mother of three, was struck by lightning and killed while traveling from Albuquerque to Ruidoso on a motorcycle on the 15th. Her husband was also struck but his injuries were not life threatening. The woman died several days later in a Lubbock hospital around the 22nd.
- Flash Flood05/30/2021
Tinnie, Lincoln County
1 death, $60K damage
What happened
Heavy rainfall in the Hondo area caused widespread flooding of roads and low water crossings. The Lincoln County emergency manager estimated that the Rio Ruidoso rose 4 to 6 feet quickly while Alamo Canyon Road south of U.S. Highway 70 was completely inundated. One individual was in their truck at Alamo Canyon Road and became stuck in the low water crossing when the flood waters inundated it. The individual then either tried to escape or the flood waters pulled them out of their truck. Tragically, they drowned, and their body was found the next day. Damages are estimated for the loss of the truck.
Drinking water
21 community water systems serve about 27,677 people. Violations since 2021.
9 systems had health-based violations, such as a contaminant over the legal limit or a missed treatment step. 3 systems had a violation of any kind still open at last report.
- Ruidoso Water SystemServes 15,947 · Surface water · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
- Alto Lakes Water and Sanitation DistrictServes 2,870 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations
- Ruidoso Downs Water SystemServes 2,146 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
- Capitan Water SystemServes 1,821 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+1 monitoring or reporting
- Carrizozo Water SystemServes 1,136 · Groundwater · Local government12 health violations+27 monitoring or reporting
- Cds Rainmakers Util LLC Rancho RuidosoServes 877 · Groundwater · Private1 health violation+3 monitoring or reporting
- Bonita Park Nazarene Conference CenterServes 460 · Groundwater · PrivateNo health violations+9 monitoring or reporting
- Sun Valley Water and Sanitation DistrictServes 443 · Groundwater · Local governmentNo health violations+2 monitoring or reporting
Largest systems by population served. Monitoring and reporting violations mean required tests or notices were late or missing, not that the water was unsafe.
Pollution sites
1 Superfund site and 0 toxic release facilities in Lincoln County
Superfund sites
- Cimarron Mining Corp.DeletedCarrizozo
Toxic release facilities
None reporting in this county.
Superfund sitesToxic release facilitiesEPA inspections and enforcementAir toxics cancer risk9 historic places
Frequently asked questions
- How risky is Lincoln County for natural disasters?
- FEMA rates Lincoln County relatively low for overall natural hazard risk, with expected losses of $27.8M a year. The highest-rated hazards are wildfire (relatively high), winter weather (relatively high), lightning (relatively high).
- What storms are most common in Lincoln County?
- Since 1996, NOAA recorded 709 storm events affecting Lincoln County, most often high wind (162), drought (156), hail (123).
- How many tornadoes have hit Lincoln County?
- 23 tornadoes have been recorded in Lincoln County since 1950.
- How many homes in Lincoln County have flood insurance?
- 267 residential flood insurance policies are in force in Lincoln County, covering about 2.1% of homes. The program has paid $17.1M on 269 claims here since 1978.
- What is the weather like in Lincoln County?
- At Capitan, average highs reach 87°F in Jun and lows fall to 24°F in Jan, with 16.6 inches of rain a year (1991-2020 normals).
Source: FEMA (National Risk Index, NFIP), NOAA (Storm Events, HURDAT2, Climate Normals), EPA · Last updated 08/01/2026 · Storm counts include events in forecast zones that touch the county. This product uses the FEMA OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA.